Mark Purdon driving Lazarus wins the New Zealand Trotting Cup. Photo / Getty Images
Josh Aiken has heard all the theories on how Hectorjayjay can down Kiwi pacing hero Lazarus in the A$400,000 Victoria Cup.
He just isn't sure they are right.
The Victorian reinsman isn't conceding tomorrow night's spectacular at Melton to the hot favourite but he says he is relying on his fellow Aussie drivers going nuts early to help him.
Aiken and Hectorjayjay have become the most dominant pair in Australian grand circuit pacing but have yet to snare their really big win, being outstayed by Smolda in the Inter Dominion final.
Their chances of revenge on the All Stars stable this week took a blow when Hectorjayjay drew two on the second line and Lazarus drew the front line, logic suggesting the Kiwi has a great shot at the lead.
Then the Australian media started to suggest Hectorjayjay may actually be able to push through from the second line early and get in front of Lazarus, with the believers backing Hectorjayjay in from $5 to $4.
But even the aggressive young Aiken doesn't hold much hope of that actually happening.
"It would be nice if it did but to be honest I can't see us getting in front of him early," said Aiken.
"With horses and drivers this good the gaps don't come easily early and I think we more likely to end up three back on the outer.
"But we can still win from there. There is a lot of gate speed right across the front line and if they all come off hard then the first 400m could be really fast.
"That gives us a chance of getting them late."
Backing Hectorjayjay to beat Lazarus won't feel quite as comfortable in that scenario, especially as no horse has ever run past Lazarus in a race.
So expect the favourite to keep working forward out wide and if he is able to get the lead, which looks likely with those inside him hardly proven grand circuit performers, then he should win.
Lazarus's stablemates Vincent and Have Faith In Me only have to perform anywhere near their best to win tomorrow, too, and Jack's Legend is good enough to overcome his wide draw in the first Victoria Derby heat but his $2 fixed quote is too short.
Making money off the Kiwis won't be easy but the best value option is Sunny Ruby in the Dullard Cup.
The Australian trotters are not super sharp and favourite On Thunder Road is not ideally suited by the ace draw so if Sunny Ruby can work forward to the marker pegs she will be hard to catch, especially after pleasing in a trial at Melton on Tuesday.
