If you think you can predict the outcome of the 2022 MotoGP season, you’re not paying enough attention.
The first four rounds of the year have been almost unprecedentedly varied. Several riders have marked themselves out as championship hopefuls but none has been able to assert themselves and take hold of the series.
But that might finally be about to change with the long European leg of the season dawning on the horizon. With 12 mostly well-worn grand prix circuits scheduled in a row, this is a chance for a rider to break the deadlock and take a step forward in the hunt for the 2022 championship.
First up is the fourth race at the Algarve International Circuit for the Portuguese Grand Prix, yet even after four races this season there’s little separating most of the bikes — don’t forget it’s a year-old Ducati powering the riders championship leader. It’s anyone’s guess as to who might be best placed to step up starting this weekend.
Here’s what to watch for this weekend at the Portuguese Grand Prix.
CAN MÁRQUEZ KEEP UP THE MOMENTUM AT A NEW CIRCUIT?
Even on a weekend with as many interesting stories as the Americas Grand Prix, none was more fascinating that Marc Márquez’s latest MotoGP injury comeback.
The Spaniard had missed the previous two races through a crash and the ensuing double vision, and in his one complete race of the season he demonstrated himself to be uncomfortable with the new bike and still limited by strength and fitness after an off-season of injury rehabilitation.
And yet the Márquez we saw in Austin last round looked every bit the all-conquering 2019-spec Spaniard, cutting through the field after a bike problem dumped him to last off the line and finishing sixth and just six seconds off the lead. Had he held his ninth-place grid spot off the line, there’s little doubt he’d have won the race.
The asterisk is that the Circuit of the Americas is Márquez’s track. This was the first time he’d taken the chequered flag in any position other than first, and so while his first race back was certainly impressive, the track definitely eased his way.
Now the challenge is completely different.
Márquez has raced only once at Algarve International Circuit — last season, the first race of his comeback from his 2020 broken arm. Seventh place belied the fact it was more about endurance, the six-time champion lacking strength after three bouts of surgery and almost a year out of the sport. He withdrew from the second race at Algarve later that year due to a concussion.
With his main rivals having had three races worth of experience at the difficult, undulating circuit, Márquez will have his work cut out to continue his momentum, and he’s keeping expectations in check.
“Now we need to understand what our level is in European tracks, which I don’t think is the level to fight for the victory every race,” he said. “I already pushed to Honda to say, ‘You have to work there and there if you want to be competitive in the next races’.
“But of course I will take the risk, and the target is to try to build the podium every race. But right now is not the time to fight for the podium.”
WILL OLIVEIRA REPRISE HIS HOME-HERO PERFORMANCE?
After a promising two podiums in the first two races, including one win, KTM suddenly came off the boil through the Americas swing, with only one finish in four in the top 10.
Ironically it’s been winner Miguel Oliveira who’s left the most points on the table. His superb wet-weather victory in Indonesia is one of his only two point-scoring finishes for the year, the other being 13th in Argentina.
It’s unfortunately on brand for the 27-year-old Portuguese rider, whose premier-class career has been characterised by inconsistency. Last season was a prime example — of his 94 points for the year, all but nine of them were scored in the first nine races.
But the downturn hasn’t been all his fault, at least last time out. The RC16 has never been suited to the unique demands of the Circuit of the Americas, so much so that even Brad Binder couldn’t crack the top 10 there.
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But returning to Oliveira’s native Portugal is an opportunity for the Austrian manufacturer and its riders to rebuild some confidence, and with a well-balanced bike at their disposal, they’re well placed to capitalise on historically decent form here.
Oliveira is of course a winner here in the premier class, taking a dominant victory at the first Portuguese Grand Prix at Algarve in 2020 off the back of his maiden premier-class pole position.
Tech3 rookies Remy Gardner and Raúl Fernandez are also winners here, taking a win and a podium apiece at the two races held at Algarve in Moto2 last season. Gardner holds the Moto2 lap record around the track from his 2020 campaign, while Fernandez has the all-time track record for the intermediate class courtesy of his pole time at last season’s Algarve Grand Prix.
In short, if KTM is going to reinvigorate its title chances, it won’t get too many better chances than the Portuguese Grand Prix.
CAN ÁLEX RINS MAKE HIMSELF SUZUKI’S MAIN MAN?
If you’d said before the season that a Suzuki rider would be second in the riders standings after four rounds, it’s unlikely you’d have picked the crash-prone Álex Rins.
The Spaniard’s speed is undoubted, but his propensity to bin his bike is equally prolific. Last year was the most crash prone of his MotoGP career, with five race-ending accidents to his name.
Yet so far this season he’s been a model of consistency, and his trajectory is moving in only one direction: seventh to fifth to third to second last time out in the United States, putting him just five points behind title leader Enea Bastianini and 10 points ahead of title-winning teammate Joan Mir.
It’s perhaps come at just the right time for 26-year-old as we approach the middle of the year and a silly season that could be very silly indeed, with all but four riders currently locked into a 2023 contract.
And Suzuki, with its newly attractive bike package, is a team apparently prepared to dive into this free agency period and see what it can get.
“There are rumours that Suzuki is talking more or less formally with some riders,” KTM boss Francesco Guidotti told Italy’s Men on Wheels magazine. “I don’t know if it has made actual proposals of if it’s just testing the ground, but I know that it is looking around.”
Such paddock scuttlebutt is hardly new, but with so many potential openings among this highly competitive field and with so many high-profile riders potentially looking to move, it’d be best to lock away some strong results now in the quest for renewed terms.
If Rins can continue the clear trajectory he’s established this season and top the podium this weekend — and let’s not forget he was looking good for second here this time last year before coming off his bike — he’d go a long way to strengthening his hand.
WILL THE CHAMPIONSHIP PICTURE START TO CLEAR?
The sport couldn’t break the record for podium variety in the USA — though 10 different podium getters from four races is still nothing to sniff at — but it’s found a different way to write history in this most unpredictable start to the season.
Bastianini is the year’s only repeat winner and leads the riders championship on a total of 61 points, but this is the lowest points tally for a title leader in the premier class after four races since this points system was implemented way back in 1993.
Not only does that underline just how unpredictable the season’s been so far, but it’s left the door open to some of the category’s slow starters to reinsert themselves into the championship conversation.
It’s great news for defending champion Fabio Quartararo, particularly given he won here last year, though he’s admittedly only mildly optimistic that his recalcitrant Yamaha might be happier around Europe’s better known circuits.
Likewise Francesco Bagnaia could use a bit of a reset, having been yet to really kick off his season after a strong end to 2021 that included a dominant weekend at the Algarve Grand Prix. Ducati teammate Jack Miller, fresh off the first podium of his season, is still very much in the hunt too despite his 30-point deficit.
With the four flyaway rounds now behind us and 12 relatively well known European tracks to come — only the relatively new Algarve and the brand-new Kymi Ring represent any kind of curve ball — this is the time for the old hands and preseason favourites to step up and stake their claims.
After two campaigns dominated by talk of consistency in the face of the pandemic, the even spread of points would seem to be begging for a rider to take the season by the collar and make their mark.
HOW CAN I WATCH IT?
All sessions for the Portuguese Grand Prix are live on Kayo and Fox Sports.
Practice sessions are live at 6:55pm and 11:10pm tonight and then 6:55pm and 10:30pm on Saturday.
Qualifying starts at 11:10pm on Saturday, with lights out for the Portuguese Grand Prix at 10:00pm Sunday.
