Before last year, one of the Storm and Roosters had featured in the past five grand finals, with either team taking home the premiership on four occasions.
It was the continuation of a decade of dominance that looked no closer to coming to an end, even as the likes of Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith called time on their careers.
Fox Sports Lab crunched the numbers midway through 2020, with the Storm and Roosters remarkably sitting inside the top four for 189 and 112 of a total 265 weeks since 2010.
Only a month ago though, there was the distinct possibility that neither team would feature inside the top four for the first time since 2010, when Melbourne had all of its points stripped for salary cap breaches.
For the Roosters, a top-eight berth still is far from guaranteed, although a win over the Storm on Friday night will lock Trent Robinson’s men in.
But it was only back in Round 16 that the Roosters found themselves four points adrift of the eight, suffering a fourth-straight loss for the first time since 2016.
Melbourne, meanwhile, had been crippled by a mounting injury toll that saw Craig Bellamy’s side slump to a fourth-straight defeat in Round 19 for the first time since 2015.
It also marked the Storm’s fifth game conceding 20 points in a row, the first time since 2014 they had achieved such an unwanted feat and left Bellamy admitting he was “not confident” they could turn their form around.
Fast-forward to the end of August and the Roosters and Storm are back in premiership contention, on six and four-game winning streaks respectively.
On Friday night, the two sides meet in what is still a clash of the heavyweights, with top-four and finals bids on the line as both teams look to make title statements.
From a transformed Brandon Smith to re-inventing their biggest names in new roles, Fox League’s Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk have broken down how both teams turned it around.
MELBOURNE STORM
The ‘turning point’ that lit a fire in Brandon Smith
Starting with Melbourne, last year’s preliminary finalists hit a new low when Brandon Smith was hit with a three-game suspension in the wake of a humiliating 28-6 defeat to Cronulla.
The Storm needed their leaders to stand up with Cameron Munster and Harry Grant both on Queensland duty while Grant Anderson and Kenny Bromwich both picked up injuries.
Instead, Smith’s frustrations boiled over in the worst way as he was sent to the sin bin for abusing referee Adam Gee, leaving coach Bellamy less than impressed.
It did not really matter what Smith said in the aftermath, his actions had to speak louder and Johns said the Kiwi international has been in career-best form in recent weeks.
“The last two weeks have been, I think, two of the best games I have seen him play,” Johns said on SEN 1170 on Friday morning.
“He’s a powerhouse. For the Storm it must just be bittersweet because you cannot replace Brandon, a player and personality like that. What a loss he is going to be for next year.
“I thought he was underdone for most of the year. Talking to Frank Ponissi about it, I said the last two weeks he has been amazing. The turning point in his season was the suspension.
“He said after the game he was shattered, knew he was in lots of trouble. He said: ‘I’ve let the team down’, apologised to the team and actually walked in and apologised to the referee, for no other reason other than he was genuinely sorry. He wasn’t doing it to get off [a suspension].”
What followed next, Johns said, was the making of Smith’s stunning return, having averaged 143 metres, five tackle busts and a linebreak in his past two games starting at lock.
“The crucial thing was that the Monday after when they returned to training, from that moment until he started training with the side again for the next two-and-a-half weeks, he just absolutely hammered himself,” Johns said.
“They said they’d never seen him train so hard and so intense. He’s lost weight. While they were pouring through video he was just pouring in sweat. He said to the players he was going to repay them and he’s doing that.”
While Penrith has been an unstoppable force for the past two years, its defence can be vulnerable at times to a combination of speed, size and short passing through the middle.
Melbourne proved it in its 16-0 shutout win earlier this month, with Smith and hooker Harry Grant carving the defending premiers up in and around the ruck.
It then allowed Cameron Munster, who was playing out the back, to put on one of his best performances of the year.
As Cronk explained on ‘The Matty Johns Podcast’, when those three are all working in tandem, it can be a nightmare to stop for opposition defences.
“The reason why Brandon Smith is so effective is his physicality in the contact but what is better than that is his leg speed over the advantage line,” Cronk said.
“If you are a defender, he’s at you quick and you start stressing about: ‘I need to turn in’ and then there’s space for someone else or you worry there’s space on the outside and turn your shoulder and Brandon cuts and runs straight through.
“In and amongst that, Harry Grant has a beacon at the moment. When Nelson [Asofa-Solomona] runs, he’s gone or when Brandon has a lazy marker on the floor because of his leg speed over the advantage line, he’s gone creating. Once Harry Grant goes, Munster who is in a fullback mindset at the moment, doesn’t worry about setting up his outside men, he’s normally pushing.”
Speaking of Munster, as if it was not already hard enough trying to defend him, Melbourne has been keeping rival teams guessing all week with where he is going to line up.
While the Storm has used the 27-year-old at fullback recently, Bellamy has still consistently told reporters that could change depending on the opposition.
Even if Munster does start a game at five-eighth, the fact he is comfortable playing at the back only gives Melbourne more flexibility to build into its attack in the opposition 20.
Another key positional switch saw Nelson Asofa-Solomona switch to the second row for Melbourne’s game with Penrith, filling the void left by Felise Kaufusi (personal reasons).
Again, with Kaufusi back in the fold and Kenny Bromwich on the other edge, Melbourne has more than enough options to move the hulking Asofa-Solomona back to the middle.
But given the success they had playing Asofa-Solomona wide against the Panthers (114 metres, seven tackle busts), it again gives Bellamy more roster flexibility to work with.
And according to Johns, Melbourne’s forward pack in particular is built to target mismatches in the opposition.
“In a game where a lot of players are around the same size and same build these days, they’ve created some beautiful mismatches,” he said.
“Putting Nelson on the edge and this came about almost by accident because my young bloke Cooper had come into the side and they knew they were going to send Kikau at him.
“So, they said: ‘We’re going to put a bodyguard alongside him in Nelson’ and not only do that but the opposite effect is that he found himself against edge defenders and he’s just charging over the top of them.
“On the reverse, the other mismatch is through the middle. Whereas with Nelson it’s big versus small, with Brandon Smith through the middle it is short, stocky and powerful and fast against tired and tall.”
The Roosters though have also experimented with their line-up and come up with the perfect balance that has been key to their turnaround, as Cronk explained.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
The early struggles and ‘compass’ that put Roosters back on track
The thing about the Roosters is that they’ve always timed their premiership runs to perfection.
Going back to that Fox Sports Lab investigation from 2020, it found that the Roosters had spent just 15 weeks in total at the top of the table since 2010.
But this year it did not necessarily seem like the Roosters were pacing themselves, slowly building towards a title tilt, like they usually do.
Rather, as Cronk put it on ‘The Matty Johns’ podcast, the first half of the season was spent trying to figure out how to get their key position players clicking.
“In previous years they’ve probably got their game and their defence in order earlier,” Cronk said.
“I think for a long period of time this year they were trying to find the balance with their different combinations, Manu in the centres and how that flows into getting his hands onto the ball. [Victor] Radley was out in different stages. Keary as well.”
Part of finding that right balance was working out how best to use Joseph Manu, who proved unstoppable for opposition defences while filling in for Keary in the halves.
Manu averaged 165 metres and 16 tackle busts in two games at five-eighth, one of which ended in a defeat to Penrith while the other saw the Roosters pile 54 points on the Dragons.
The 26-year-old had two tries, 18 tackle breaks, four linebreaks and two try assists in that win over St. George Illawarra, leaving the Roosters with quite the dilemma.
“I think there’s a question coming for the Roosters beyond this season. How do the Roosters get Joey Manu closer to that footy with Tedesco, Keary and Joey (in the team)?” News Corp journalist Dave Riccio told ‘NRL 360’ at the time.
They were not going to dump Keary or Sam Walker but coach Trent Robinson had a plan, telling reporters Manu had been given a “licence to roam” despite moving back to the centres.
Johns said on SEN 1170 that the combination between Manu and Tedesco has set the “compass” on the Roosters’ season, getting them back on track to premiership contention.
“When Luke came back into the side, I thought how are they going to do this? Because Manu was just driving through the middle,” Johns said.
“Trent Robinson has just basically said to Manu: ‘Anytime you want, anytime you think something is on, just drift inward and he has done it really well Manu’. Him and Tedesco, that’s the key combination for the Roosters, they’re playing great football.”
Cronk said there is a danger with that tactic though, one the Roosters have avoided because Manu is actually going looking to something with the ball.
“The thing about Joseph Manu is sometimes when you swing players from sideline to sideline, you can sort of make it like a computer system and it doesn’t become natural,” he said on ‘The Matty Johns podcast’.
“But what he’s doing right now is he has the freedom to go in and out and it’s actually catching the opposition unaware. He’s actually making a difference.”
That element of the unknown, like Melbourne playing Munster at the back, is what makes both teams so “dangerous” according to Johns.
“There are no secrets in rugby league attack anymore,” he added.
“There are very few new shapes. The best teams sit there and as a side gets into formation straight away they identify it but a player like a Munster, a Brandon Smith, a Manu, a Tedesco who go in and do something completely out of the blue, that is the dangerous stuff.”
The underrated success story up front
Of course, as is the case with Melbourne, the Roosters’ success is also built up front and there has been one unexpected leader at the front in mid-season recruit Matt Lodge.
“I’ve always heard big raps about Matt Lodge and up until this year I didn’t see it,” Johns admitted.
“I thought about the Broncos, I thought he looked cumbersome, I thought he was a liability in defence. He’s been a blessing for the Roosters, he’s been outstanding.”
The Roosters have been hit hard by injury at various points of the season, with Lindsay Collins and Siosiua Taukeiaho set to return this Friday after stints on the sideline.
Lodge though has stood tall in their absence, particularly in the last three rounds, averaging 127 metres and getting through plenty of work in defence.
The return of Collins and Taukeiaho sets up quite the battle up front in what shapes as a blockbuster clash between two competition heavyweights with finals ramifications.
For the Storm, victory on Friday night will guarantee them a spot inside the top four while the Roosters will lock up their spot in the eight with a win.
If anything though, the second half of this year has once again proved the dangers that come with doubting proven success.
