It is happening again. Another off-season spent writing off Melbourne, questioning whether this will finally be the year that Craig Bellamy’s perennial powerhouse starts to fall away.
After all, Bellamy himself only admitted this week that his time as head coach could be over as early as the end of this season. The Storm are on the clock.
But Thursday night’s season-opener against Parramatta is yet another chance for Melbourne to reset that clock, to once again rise to the challenge and prove this just the latest in a long list of eulogies never to be read.
That, of course, is not to say that one result will serve as a true indicator of just what lies in store for the Storm in what may well be Bellamy’s last year in charge.
But the Melbourne of old has not lost a round one game since 2001. So, what better way to prove that nothing has changed than to extend that record?
The Storm are not the only ones with questions to answer. Like Melbourne, Parramatta too is a premiership contender said to be on the decline.
Sure, Mitchell Moses is still expected to extend his stay, giving the Eels a long-term halves partnership to build future success around after Dylan Brown was locked in earlier this year.
But with Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali’i out the door and injuries up front, there are suggestions Parramatta could not just miss the grand final but the top eight entirely.
These are two teams with premiership ambitions. They also both have plenty to prove, starting on Thursday night.
For the Storm, as former premiership-winning halfback Cooper Cronk said on Fox League’s 2023 preview show, the “biggest talking point” is the losses up front.
Of course, Melbourne faced similar question marks last year amid the departures of Dale Finucane, Nicho Hynes and Josh Addo-Carr among others.
But the club has seen 791 games worth of NRL experience walk out the door this off-season, with both Jesse and Kenny Bromwich joining Felise Kaufusi at the Dolphins.
Brandon Smith also linked up with the Roosters, leaving the Storm and Harry Grant without the second part of the league’s most effective one-two punch.
“If you think about that, it is a starting pack essentially,” Cronk said.
“But I think it’s the same old Melbourne Storm.”
And a lot of that comes back to who Melbourne has recruited over the off-season. As much as the Bromwich brothers and Kaufusi may have experience, that isn’t everything.
You only have to look at North Queensland, who last year benefited from Todd Payten promoting younger and more dynamic players like Heilum Luki, Jeremiah Nanai and Griffin Neame at the expense of more experienced, underperforming teammates.
That is not to say the Melbourne trio were underperforming but they are certainly not irreplaceable and the Storm still have Christian Welch and Nelson Asofa-Solomona leading the way up front with Tariq Sims soon to be fit and available on the edge.
Parramatta’s forward pack may be understrength but its starting front row is still intact, with Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo both named to start on Thursday night.
So that in itself immediately presents both Welch and Asofa-Solomona with an opportunity to prove they can lead the way for the more inexperienced Melbourne pack.
But even if this does end up being Bellamy’s last year in charge, Cronk predicted his former coach to leave the Storm with one final gift when it comes to those inexperienced players.
“What Craig Bellamy will do, he’ll sprinkle the magic dust on those new guys,” Cronk said, pointing towards Trent Loiero, Josh King and new recruit Eliesa Katoa.
“He’ll get them to become role players, defend for long periods of time, be consistent and play high-performance plays and then just give the ball to the arguably the best spine in the competition.”
Katoa in particular is an unpolished gem of sorts, immediately flashing his potential in a rookie season with the Warriors which saw him score six tries in just 13 games.
“Eli Katoa for me is exactly what Craig Bellamy’s been able to do for so long,” former premiership-winning hooker Michael Ennis said on the preview show.
“He came on to the scene like an absolute rampaging weapon at the Warriors and then just plateaued and changes scenery in the Melbourne system. He’ll be one of the best backrowers in the competition if he stays healthy.”
And with Parramatta missing its own weapons on the edge in Papali’i and the injured Shaun Lane, Thursday night presents itself as the perfect chance for Katoa to build on a strong pre-season.
The Eels could do with a little bit of that magic Bellamy touch this year. His track record speaks for itself, the list of success stories long — of giving every player under his watch a clear role and watching them flourish because of it.
It is what Parramatta needs right now as what was once the team’s biggest strength now shapes as one of its greatest weaknesses heading into Thursday’s game.
“Their backrow certainly looks different and the loss of Shaun Lane in the trial periods is a huge blow for them because he was so good with Dylan Brown out on that left hand side,” Ennis said.
“So at the moment no Ryan Matterson, no Shaun Lane, no Isaiah Papali’i. Their backrow was one of their great strengths last year and one of the reasons that they had the success that they had.
“So how Brad Arthur gets guys like Matt Doorey, J’Maine Hopgood, these type of players Jack Murchie to perform out of their skin, that’s what we’ve seen the top coaches do.
“When they get those players that are part of the roster, when they come in and get their opportunity, they play like marquee players. That’s what the great coaches do. So he’s got to do that.”
It is not just in the second row where there are question marks though, with the loss of Mahoney leaving Parramatta relying on former Raiders hooker Josh Hodgson to fill the void.
Sure, Hodgson was one of the craftiest rakes in the game a few years ago at Canberra but that was before he tore his ACL. He is now 33 years old. Mahoney, on the other hand, is 24.
Now obviously age is not the determining factor in how good a player can be. After all, try telling Cameron Smith that.
But whether Hodgson will offer the same spark out of dummy-half to get Parramatta’s forward pack rolling remains to be seen.
As Ennis pointed out, there is also the question of whether that crafty style he plays with will help or actually hinder the attack, particularly with a player like Mitchell Moses at halfback.
“They’re a highly dominant side by playing through their middle forwards, particularly Junior Paulo and also playing off their seven and six,” Ennis said.
“So, you’ll notice last year a lot of wide passes from Reed Mahoney using the running games of Moses and Dylan Brown. Hodgson on the other hand, he likes to play crafty with his middle forwards around the scrum base.
“Now Mitchell likes the ball in his hands early. Josh likes to get out and play around the ruck. So how they manage that balance will go a long way to seeing where Parramatta finish.”
For Cronk though, the bigger question hanging over Parramatta is not how Hodgson fits into the attack or whether it has enough depth to cover the losses up front.
Instead, it’s something far more simple. The Eels have had five months to dwell on last year’s grand final heartbreak. How they respond, Cronk said, will determine how far they go.
Thursday night could give an early glimpse into answering that question.
“I’m a little bit worried about the Eels,” the Dally M medallist said.
“When you lose a grand final, it’s very easy to start pointing the finger. You can become quite separated in the way that you went about it because egos get in the road.
“But when you want to go back to Everest and try and win that grand final, you need to be more selfless, more team-first, more galvanised than ever before because it’s not football that lets them down.
“It’s can you get back there with the team-first mentality? Absolutely I think they can [win the title], they really need to be galvanised this year and they’ve got some egos in that group that seem like they can separate at different stages.
“[It is a] big job for Brad Arthur, I think football isn’t the issue. It’s probably between the ears for Parramatta to get back to the grand final this year.”
