The Rugby World Cup is in full swing and for the All Blacks, their upcoming match against Italy on Saturday is a crucial one.

Having faced a not-entirely surprise defeat against hosts France in the opener, this clash after a two-week break takes centre stage. A victory against Italy is imperative for the side to solidify their position in Pool A.

But should All Blacks fans be genuinely worried about this match? Let’s break it down.

Italy’s ascent: Should we fear the Azzurri?

Italy’s recent track record reveals a team on the rise. Under the guidance of former All Black Kieran Crowley, the Italians have undergone a transformation. Their fitness, discipline, set-piece strength and threats in the backline have all evolved, making them a competitive force.

After a series of defeats, they now boast a four-game winning streak, their longest in nearly three decades. Notably, they upset former rugby giants like Australia in November, ending 49 years of hurt. But perhaps beating Australia is nothing to boast about lately.

Earlier this year, they nearly caused the upset of the year giving France a major scare before going down 29-24. Italy fought back from 19-6 down to lead for the first time in the match at 24-22 with less than a quarter to go. It had been 10 years since Italy had beaten France or won at home.

In their last pool match against Uruguay, Italy rebounded from a 10-point halftime deficit to blow the South Americans away 38-17.

Italy will be hungry to defeat the All Blacks this week. They have never missed a World Cup but they’ve never made it out of the group stages either. At each of the past five tournaments, Italy has finished third place in their group.

Analysing the squads: All Blacks v Azzurri

Comparing the squads, the All Blacks are the strongest on paper.

The New Zealanders have made significant changes to the team that played Namibia, especially in the backline. Key players like Aaron Smith, Richie Mo’unga, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan are returning to the starting lineup. Sam Whitelock has been named on the bench and if he gets on the field, will become the most-capped All-Blacks player ever.

On the other side, Italian coach Kieran Croley has made some strategic changes with notable players like Dino Lamb and Luca Morisi stepping up. Tommaso Allan returns to fullback after starting at first five last week, while Paolo Garbisi moves from the centres to first five. Allan has not missed a shot at goal at RWC 2023, kicking all 13 attempts, and requires five more points to surpass Diego Dominguez as Italy’s all-time leading Rugby World Cup point-scorer.

No player in the match-day team has ever scored a try against the All Blacks. The last Azzurri player to cross New Zealand’s try-line was Tommaso Boni in 2016.

All Blacks

1. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Nepo Laulala, 4. Brodie Retallick, 5. Scott Barrett, 6. Shannon Frizell, 7. Dalton Papali’i, 8. Ardie Savea (captain), 9. Aaron Smith, 10. Richie Mo’unga, 11. Mark Tele’a, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Will Jordan, 15. Beauden Barrett. Replacements: 16. Dane Coles, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Tyrel Lomax, 19. Samuel Whitelock, 20. Sam Cane, 21. Cam Roigard, 22. Damian McKenzie, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown.

Italy

1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 3. Marco Riccioni, 4. Dino Lamb, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Sebastian Negri, 7. Michele Lamaro (captain), 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 9. Stephen Varney, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 11. Montanna Ioane, 12. Luca Morisi, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 14. Ange Capuozzo, 15. Tommaso Allan. Replacements: 16. Hame Faiva, 17. Ivan Nemer, 18. Simone Ferrari, 19. Niccolo Cannone, 20. Manuel Zuliani, 21. Toa Halafihi, 22. Martin Page-Relo, 23. Paolo Odogwu.

Who is Kieran Crowley?

Crowley played for the All Blacks when they won the first Rugby World Cup in 1987 and has spent the last 14 years coaching abroad – moving to Italy after leading the Canadian national team for seven years. He played 19 tests among his 35 matches for the All Blacks from 1983 to 1991.

Crowley’s arrival in Italy two years ago altered that approach by overhauling Italy’s conservative mindset to create a vastly different identity.

He assumed charge when Italy was at a low ebb, with a 36-test losing run in the Six Nations. After each defeat, the clamour of criticism grew. Italy broke their horror streak by stunning Wales in Cardiff last year. They proved that was no fluke, too, with their first win against the Wallabies last November, and they then put 49 points on Samoa the following week.

All Blacks

1. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Nepo Laulala, 4. Brodie Retallick, 5. Scott Barrett, 6. Shannon Frizell, 7. Dalton Papali’i, 8. Ardie Savea (captain), 9. Aaron Smith, 10. Richie Mo’unga, 11. Mark Tele’a, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Will Jordan, 15. Beauden Barrett. Replacements: 16. Dane Coles, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Tyrel Lomax, 19. Samuel Whitelock, 20. Sam Cane, 21. Cam Roigard, 22. Damian McKenzie, 23. Anton Lienert-Brown.

Italy

1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 3. Marco Riccioni, 4. Dino Lamb, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Sebastian Negri, 7. Michele Lamaro (captain), 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 9. Stephen Varney, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 11. Montanna Ioane, 12. Luca Morisi, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 14. Ange Capuozzo, 15. Tommaso Allan. Replacements: 16. Hame Faiva, 17. Ivan Nemer, 18. Simone Ferrari, 19. Niccolo Cannone, 20. Manuel Zuliani, 21. Toa Halafihi, 22. Martin Page-Relo, 23. Paolo Odogwu.

Who is Kieran Crowley?

Crowley played for the All Blacks when they won the first Rugby World Cup in 1987 and has spent the last 14 years coaching abroad – moving to Italy after leading the Canadian national team for seven years. He played 19 tests among his 35 matches for the All Blacks from 1983 to 1991.

Crowley’s arrival in Italy two years ago altered that approach by overhauling Italy’s conservative mindset to create a vastly different identity.

He assumed charge when Italy was at a low ebb, with a 36-test losing run in the Six Nations. After each defeat, the clamour of criticism grew. Italy broke their horror streak by stunning Wales in Cardiff last year. They proved that was no fluke, too, with their first win against the Wallabies last November, and they then put 49 points on Samoa the following week.

Through innovation and an enterprising style based on using the middle of the field with a 2-4-2 pod system, having players in motion and keeping the ball alive, which is complemented by strong loose forwards Lorenzo Cannone and Michele Lamaro, Italy pushed Ireland and France – the latter to the brink – in this year’s Six Nations.

Earlier this week Crowley promised our rugby writer Liam Napier a courageous, attacking-minded attitude from his side as they plot their shot at history in Lyon next weekend.

How the points system works

Looking at the points system, both teams understand the stakes. A win for the All Blacks would propel them forward, potentially earning them a crucial bonus point. Meanwhile, Italy aim to not only secure a victory but also accumulate points for a significant advantage. The scenario sets the stage for a dynamic encounter.

France currently top Pool A at 13 points including one bonus point, with Italy sitting in second at 10 including two bonus points, and New Zealand in third at five points.

In the World Cup, four points are awarded for a win, two points for a draw, a try bonus is awarded to teams who score four or more tries in a match, and a losing bonus point is applied to teams who lose a match by seven or fewer points.

Here’s how the points could roll out:

• All Blacks win: four points, nine total.
• All Blacks win with four tries or more: four points plus bonus, 10 total.
• All Blacks lose by seven or fewer: one point, six total.
• Italy win: four points, 14 total.
• Italy win with four tries or more: four points plus bonus, 15 total.
• Italy lose by seven or fewer: one point, 11 total.

Conclusion: Fear or fervour?

While an upset by Italy is not entirely implausible considering their recent form and determination, in reality, the likelihood of winning leans heavily towards the All Blacks.

Despite some inconsistency in recent years, the All Blacks remain a rugby powerhouse. Their clash with Italy is likely to showcase their dominance, securing a victory and the much-needed bonus point.

Worried? Not really. The All Blacks are poised for a resounding victory.

All Blacks v Italy: Kickoff 8am on Saturday

Follow the match at nzherald.co.nz

Elliott Smith’s live commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio

Alternative Commentary Collective: iHeartRadio and Radio Hauraki

Luke Kirkness is an Online Sports Editor for the NZ Herald. He previously covered consumer affairs for the Herald and was an assistant news director in the Bay of Plenty. He won Student Journalist of the Year in 2019.