As the year draws to a close, it’s time to look ahead to the next one. So, without the benefit of hindsight, we’ve taken a look at what footy in 2022 might hold. Here are our 22 fearless predictions for 2022.
1) Three teams will miss the top eight after playing finals in 2021
This always sounds bold, but we made this call and it actually underestimated the amount of change, with four teams falling out of the eight - Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda and Collingwood - to be replaced by Melbourne, Sydney, GWS and Essendon. Since the top eight was introduced in 1994, there have always been at least two changes and the average is right under three. Of course the tricky part is figuring out who actually makes the move...
2) Carlton plays finals
Yes, they’ve got the easiest fixture in the competition next year and the addition of Adam Cerra to the line-up, but ask any Blues supporter and they’ll likely tell you you’re a brave soul for tipping them to play finals given the wasted promise over the past few seasons. It’s been nearly a decade since the Blues last played finals (2013 as part of the Essendon supplements saga fallout), but even this year we saw a team widely seen as gross underperformers finally break through in Melbourne. No, we’re not saying the Blues are going to win the flag, but finals just has to be on the table if they’re dealt a good hand with player availability. Michael Voss gets his second chance as senior coach and one of his predecessors at Carlton in Brett Ratten showed in his first year as head coach at St Kilda how much he grew in-between stints at the helm. The Blues may’ve lost Liam Jones to retirement, but the list looks primed and the pieces are in place.
3) But Essendon doesn’t
The Bombers shocked us all to make the finals in 2021, but the AFL fixture for next year has not done them any favours in their bid for back-to-back September showings. With the second-hardest fixture in 2022, behind only premiers Melbourne, the Bombers are well and truly up against it, playing Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Sydney twice along with what could be a resurgent Richmond. Yes, two games against Collingwood is half-decent, but it’s going to be anything but smooth sailing on paper at least. Cale Hooker’s retirement leaves a bit of a hole up forward where a big key presence to aid Peter Wright was already lacking - Hooker managed 33 goals in 18 games while Wright, while showing promise, finished four goals behind him despite playing three more games. The arrival of Ben Hobbs via first round of the draft is great, as is the arrival of Jake Kelly from Adelaide, but a fall down the ladder by at least one spot appears in store next year.
4) Neither does West Coast
On paper, the Eagles’ fixture doesn’t look that bad given their double up opponents are Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong, Gold Coast and Richmond. Games between Round 6 and 12 look nasty, though: Port Adelaide away, Richmond at home, Brisbane away, Melbourne at home, GWS away, Bulldogs at home. Adam Simpson and company wouldn’t be thrilled that their fixture includes a game at both The Gabba and GMHBA Stadium - two venues they have performed well below par at. Judging by comments from CEO Trevor Nisbett, there are some changes coming to the Eagles’ game plan, but just how much can Simpson engineer in a side that is desperately lacking in pace? Sam Petrevski-Seton’s addition is handy but he is still unproven as a regular AFL performer, while the leadership offered by veterans such as Shannon Hurn, Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo can’t cover for their relatively one-note style of play. They performed well below expectations in 2021 judging by many pre-season predictions, but maybe it’s time we recalibrate our expectations rather than expect the Eagles to perform to the standard we’ve expected since 2018.
5) Or the Giants
Like Essendon, the Giants’ whirlwind run to a surprise finals berth this year has hurt them in terms of fixture difficulty - they’ve got the fourth-hardest of any side, facing the Dogs, Lions and Swans twice, along with what should be improved Fremantle and Carlton sides. The positives for the Giants are they’ve added Finn Callaghan via the draft and could see a lot more of Jesse Hogan and Braydon Preuss if injury permits, while they’ll also likely get to play a lot more games in their home state after a Covid-interrupted 2021. Still, the fixture poses a considerable challenge and, realistically, a year out of the finals won’t do them too much harm given their premiership window is at least a couple of years down the track with their gun new draftees still developing.
6) St Kilda bounces back or big changes are made
We’re tipping the Saints to get back into the finals after a shocker of a season this year, but if they don’t then there’s going to be a lot of change afoot at Moorabbin. This is a list clearly built to be contending right now and yet they couldn’t even make finals in 2021. Brett Ratten getting a second chance at a senior coaching gig was one of footy’s feel-good stories and his effort in getting the Saints into a semi-final in 2020 was fantastic, likely buying him time and the benefit of the doubt after this season. The issue for Ratten, like all other out of contract coaches, is that Alastair Clarkson and Nathan Buckley are waiting in the wings. Annoyingly for Ratten, the Saints have been dealt a rough draw, with double up opponents including Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney. Despite all this, the expectations are high on the Saints because their list is primed for performance right now and they’ll likely lose vital ruckman Paddy Ryder in the next year or two. The Saints should bounce back in 2022 despite their draw, or we dare say there’ll be some significant changes.
7) Clarko gets to the Suns
It would be great to see Stuart Dew turn the Suns around, but they’re already on the backfoot heading into 2022 with Hugh Greenwood’s shock departure and it’s hard to see the side making their first ever finals series, even with the expectations from those atop the Suns hierarchy that September action is part of next season. It would be hard enough for any AFL coach to keep their head above water given the fierce spotlight on the underperformers, but Alastair Clarkson’s likely availability at the end of next year is going to add another element of pressure to those fighting to keep their position heading into 2023. Clarkson loves a challenge as he’s so often said - what’s a bigger challenge than trying to kickstart a side that has disappointed for virtually its entire existence and, as a result of a breakthrough, supercharge the AFL’s development in Queensland?
8) Fresh off a Matt Rowell masterclass
‘Failure to launch’ would be a tough assessment of Rowell at just 20 years of age, but expectations were understandably through the roof as he strung together best on ground performances in his first year before going down with a shoulder injury. To make matters worse, injury curtailed him again in 2021, knocking him down in Round 1 before a return from Round 13 onwards. While he strung together a stack of games, Rowell looked several steps off his best and understandably may’ve been building his match confidence back up while also negotiating opposition sides putting renewed attention into curtailing his influence. With a full pre-season under his belt and some continuity at the back-end of the year, Rowell looks primed to rediscover his best. Stuart Dew started him outside the midfield on some occasions this year, but Hugh Greenwood’s departure means Rowell’s midfield minutes should soar once again. If Rowell puts it all together, All-Australian honours are well in the mix. We’re backing him in to return to his best.
9) Stephen Coniglio returns to form ... or finds a fresh start
There’s no other option is there? You can’t have a man on a seven-year, $7 million contract in-and-out of the side, so he’s either playing at or near his best in 2022 or a fresh start at a new club may have to be negotiated. Coniglio at his best was an imposing force able to hit the scoreboard and rack up the footy - attributes that have been noticeably absent in the last two years amid injury and poor form. Being one of three co-captains is a move that has come in for some scrutiny, but it should allow the 28-year-old to be relieved of at least some of the pressure that appears to have coincided with his appointment to the role. Whatever the case, 2022 will prove a defining year in the career of Coniglio.
10) Sam Walsh wins the Brownlow Medal
He polled 30 votes in 2021, equalling the most votes in a single season by a Blue, doing it at the age of 21. All that was with the Blues finishing 13th in a disappointing season. With Adam Cerra now adding to the midfield mix and the Blues surely in store for more wins in 2022, Walsh’s ability to rack up the footy and the votes will only improve after another pre-season. Few if any players work as hard as Walsh, he rarely if ever causes a fuss - if there was a teacher’s pet in AFL terms, it would likely be Walsh. The stars should all align for him next year and see him claim the Brownlow Medal at just 22-years-old and becoming the youngest winner since Trent Cotchin in 2012.
