Like wider society, the AFL is trying to head back towards normality; but it’s not going to be so simple.
Already the AFLW season has shown the impact of the Omicron variant, and the decisions of most Australian states to live with the less-dangerous version of the virus, with multiple games postponed because clubs couldn’t field a team.
At one stage in January something like 20 of the Western Bulldogs’ 30 AFLW-listed players tested positive, missing multiple games in the process.
The men’s season has two advantages over the women’s; time and money.
In AFLW, it’s very easy for a list of 30 women (plus train-on players, typically from VFLW or its equivalents) to be cut down due to a Covid outbreak, as seen with clubs like GWS and the Western Bulldogs, even with only 16 players on the field.
At AFL level clubs head into the 2022 season with around 42-44 players on their lists, including rookies, and even in a (relatively) normal year like 2021, they use most of them. 10 clubs used at least 38 players last season while the Western Bulldogs made the Grand Final while using a league-high 41.
The problem will be if specific sections of the list are hit. Let’s take Adelaide’s ruck division as an example; they have only Reilly O’Brien and rookie Kieran Strachan as recognised rucks on their list.
Would Tex Walker (40 hitouts last year), Riley Thilthorpe (25) or Billy Frampton (24) really be used as a centre-bounce ruckman? Or would the Crows want a state-league ruckman instead?
Overall if clubs only lose a few players over the course of a week, it’ll probably just end up being handled like an unfortunate short-term injury bug. Players would be unavailable for at least seven days, maybe more if they don’t feel ready to play a week later (as has happened in AFLW).
Close contact rules will need to be ironed out. At the moment South Australia and West Australia require 14 days of isolation, while Victoria, NSW and Queensland require seven - but if precedent is kept, all clubs would have to play with the harshest rules. That would mean two weeks out for all close contacts.
But as long as they’ve got 23-odd options heading into a weekend, teams are expected to be told to name a side and get on with it.
WHERE WOULD THEY GET THE REPLACEMENTS FROM?
The state leagues were already frustrated when their sides were raided via the mid-season draft, but 2022 could be a more extreme version of that.
Nine reported Victorian teams would be tied to a VFL team, and then to a NAB League (under-19s) side below that, keeping each competition going under one plan which dates back to the height of the pandemic in 2020.
The logical outcome could see AFL clubs able to pick players from their own VFL (or other state league) sides if they have them.
In Victoria, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Hawthorn (Box Hill), Melbourne (Casey), North Melbourne, Richmond, St Kilda (Sandringham) and the Western Bulldogs (Footscray) all have established VFL links.
The Nine report stated the Victorian clubs would then be linked with NAB League sides, most based on geography: Carlton with the Northern Knights, Collingwood with the Oakleigh Chargers, Essendon with the Calder Cannons, Geelong with the Geelong Falcons, Hawthorn with Eastern Ranges, Melbourne with Gippsland Power, North Melbourne with the Murray Bushrangers, Richmond with the Dandenong Stingrays, St Kilda with the Sandringham Dragons, and the Western Bulldogs with North Ballarat.
Thanks to the revamped East Coast-wide VFL restructure, Sydney, GWS, Gold Coast and Brisbane also have VFL teams, so they could pluck players from their own sides, as well as their Academy teams in the NAB League.
Adelaide and Port Adelaide have SANFL sides while West Coast has a WAFL team and Fremantle has a formal alignment with Peel Thunder, but there are stricter limits on state-league players ascending to AFL level.
Nine also reported payments for state league players who were required to play at AFL level would come from outside the salary cap.
WHO COULD END UP BEING THE WINNERS AND LOSERS?
In a sense, the clubs based in states where Covid is already an everyday occurrence sit at an advantage.
The Age reported over half of all AFL players outside of Western Australia have contracted Covid already - which makes sense, because the 20-29 age group has been the most likely to be infected with Omicron.
While it’s possible to contract the virus multiple times, and a small number of players have, there is a case to be made that men’s teams outside of WA are getting the worst of this current outbreak out of the way.
It’s unclear how Fremantle and West Coast will be handled - given the confusion around WA border restrictions, and whether they’ll be allowed to stay home or need to relocate interstate during the home and away season.
But as their playing groups are yet to be hit as hard with Omicron, it’s entirely possible they’ll suffer outbreaks during the season instead. That could cost them depth, or even force their matches to be rescheduled.
If the AFL does work out clean links between state league sides and their AFL equivalents, some clubs will be better off with access to talented depth than overs.
For example in the 2021 VFL season, which wasn’t completed due to the Victorian August-October lockdown, Footscray went unbeaten while Box Hill, Geelong and Casey also looked a class above the rest.
If that form continues into 2022, it would mean the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Geelong and Melbourne may have access to better talent - boosts for three premiership contenders, plus the Hawks, where new senior coach Sam Mitchell was previously in charge of the VFL side and would know it well.
The reserves sides of Sydney, Essendon, Brisbane and North Melbourne struggled at VFL level last year and may not be of as much help to their senior equivalents.
