This year’s renewal of the Epsom Derby is expected to be an exciting contest with no clear favourite or domination from the leading yards. Similar comments could apply to the Group 1 Oaks, run at Epsom on Friday.
The Group 2 Musidora Stakes, run on the first day of the Dante meeting at York two weeks ago, tends to produce a useful performance and seven fillies have gone on to complete the Musidora-Oaks double including 2021 winner Snowfall. This year's renewal saw the John and Thady Gosden trained Soul Sister produce an eye-catching four length victory, turning around her form after a disappointing return to action in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes where she finished last. The Frankel filly did little wrong aside from drift left in the closing stages in the Musidora but there has to be question marks about the form – only Sea Of Roses (fifth) is entered in the Oaks and she is a general 50/1 shot.
When it comes to dubious form, Savethelastdance's twenty-two length victory in the Listed Chester Oaks is dividing opinion. She was very slow to get going in the early stages but made headway three furlongs out and drew clear in impressive fashion. The ground, officially soft, was hard work at Chester and she is yet to performer on anything faster than soft. Despite all the question marks, she hails from the Aidan O'Brien stable and is ridden by Ryan Moore – there is improvement to come, and the team will be anticipating a possible slow start.
Despite recording four consecutive victories, the Gosden's Running Lion is an unknown quantity stepping into Group company for the first time. She was a comfortable four-and-a-half length winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over ten furlongs at Newmarket and continues to improve with each run. Stamina would be a concern, even though her sire Roaring Lion finished a brave second in the Derby.
The Listed Oaks Trial at Lingfield has produced Oaks winners in the past (Anapurna in 2019) but this year's renewal is difficult to assess after being switched to the all-weather due to conditions on the turf track. This benefitted eventual winner Eternal Hope whose previous two runs had been at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton, whilst it probably hindered Be Happy, who had only raced on turf prior. It would be no surprise to see the two fillies' reverse placings, with Aidan O'Brien's Be Happy looking an attractive each way option at 33/1.
Of the other outsiders, Jack Channon seems bullish about the chance of his under-rated filly Caernarfon, who posted yet another consistent performance to finish fourth in the Group 1 1000 Guineas. She is far from a confirmed stayer, but the filly is better than her current price of 33/1 would suggest.
WIN: SAVETHELASTDANCE (11/8F)
PLACE: BE HAPPY (33/1)
DARK HORSE: CAERNARFON (33/1)
