One of the NBA's greatest rivalries is rekindled on Tuesday evening. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Boston Celtics in a prime-time showdown. Los Angeles is 11-15 overall and 6-6 at home, with Boston bringing the NBA's best record into the proceedings. LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (back) are listed as probable for the Lakers, with Juan Toscano-Anderson (ankle) and Wenyen Gabriel (shoulder) ruled out. Al Horford (personal), Robert Williams III (knee), and Danilo Gallinari (knee) are all out for Boston.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 3.5-point road favorite for this 10 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 233.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Lakers odds. Before making any Lakers vs. Celtics picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 26-10 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $1,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Celtics vs. Lakers:
- Celtics vs. Lakers spread: Celtics -3.5
- Celtics vs. Lakers over/under: 233.5 points
- Celtics vs. Lakers money line: Celtics -170, Lakers +143
- BOS: The Celtics are 4-1 against the spread with no rest
- LAL: The Lakers are 6-6 against the spread at home
- Celtics vs. Lakers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston's offense is unquestionably elite, leading the NBA in points per possession (1.19). The Celtics have the best overall statistical profile in the league, including the best win-loss record and point differential, and Boston is leading the NBA in shooting efficiency. In addition to elite numbers on offense, the Celtics are in the top ten in defensive rating, yielding only 1.11 points per possession.
Boston is in the top three of the NBA in assists allowed, and the Celtics are in the top 10 in defensive rebound rate (73%), points allowed in the paint and fast break points allowed. The Celtics are better than the league average in field goal percentage allowed, and the Lakers are below-average in offensive efficiency. Los Angeles doesn't crash the offensive glass, giving Boston the ability to prevent extra opportunities.
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers are led by a pair of stars in Davis and James, with each averaging more than 26 points per game. Los Angeles is also leading the NBA in free throw creation, averaging nearly 26 attempts per game at the charity stripe. The Lakers rank in the top five of the league in fast break points (16.5 per game) and points in the paint (56.6 per game), and Los Angeles is shooting 55.1% inside the arc this season.
The Lakers commit a turnover on only 14.2% of offensive possessions, and Boston is in the bottom five of the league in turnover creation rate on defense. Los Angeles is also stellar in preventing free throw attempts on defense, ranking No. 2 in the league, and the Lakers are facing a Celtics team that is last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate this season.
How to make Lakers vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 226 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
