The Minnesota Timberwolves scored a huge road win against the Warriors on Sunday. The Wolves are now tied in the loss column with the Warriors and currently own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better conference win percentage (though that is far from sealed; Minnesota leads by one game). Still, with seven games to play, the Wolves control their own destiny to win the No. 6 seed over Golden State.
Also, the Lakers lost to Chicago in LeBron James return but still have a one-game cushion above the play-in line thanks to Dallas' loss to Charlotte.
Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Monday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are clinched.
Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the No. 8 seed.
OTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
- Clinched top-three seed
- Projected seed: 1
- Current first-round matchup: TBD
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Nuggets have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Nuggets lead season series 2-0 with two to play
- Clinched top-four seed
- Projected seed: 2
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves-Lakers play-in winner
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader
- Projected seed: 3
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Kings own via division leader
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Projected seed: 4
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
- Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
- Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings own via division leader
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Los Angeles Clippers (39-36)
- Projected seed: 6
- Current first-round matchup: at Suns
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Clippers lead via division win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched
6. Golden State Warriors (39-37)
- Projected seed: 5
- Current first-round matchup: at Kings
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves currently lead via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Warriors clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers lead via division win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Thunder: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched
Play-In Tournament
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (38-37)
- Projected seed: 10
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Pelicans (play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Wolves currently lead via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched
8. New Orleans Pelicans (37-37)
- Projected seed: Lottery
- Current first-round matchup: at Wolves (play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans clinched
9. Los Angeles Lakers (37-38)
- Projected seed: 7
- Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder (play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Warriors: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
- Projected seed: 9
- Current first-round matchup: at Lakers (play-in)
- Tiebreaker vs. Warriors: Golden State leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: OKC clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched
Outside Looking In
11. Dallas Mavericks (36-39)
- Projected seed: 8
- Tiebreaker vs. Oklahoma City: OKC clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
- Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Mavericks clinched
12. Utah Jazz (35-39)
- Projected seed: Lottery
- Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz clinched
- Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play